【变局专栏22】角逐中国市场的时代来了（中英双语）

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编者按：中美第一阶段协议签署后，第六章“扩大贸易”备受关注，美国商品、美国之外的其他国家商品与中国商品会产生一轮抢夺中国市场的激烈竞争，中国市场的理性选择，是决定这场抢夺市场战的关键。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第22篇专栏文章《角逐中国市场的时代来了》于1月21日刊出，原英文标题为《How can the US sell more goods to China?》，现将中英文内容转发如下：

After China and the US signed the phase one trade agreement, many friends from Europe, Southeast Asia and Japan asked me for my views. Different from the Chinese public which pays more attention to Chapter 4 "Financial Services" of the agreement, foreign elites are more concerned about Chapter 6 - "Expanding Trade."

中美第一阶段协议签署后，欧洲、东南亚、日本的不少朋友问我的看法。相比于中国民众更关注8章协议内容中的第四章“金融服务”，外国精英更关注第六章“扩大贸易”。

China promises in Chapter 6 that during the two-year period from January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2021, it would ensure purchases and imports into China from the US of manufactured goods, agricultural goods, energy products, and services exceeding the corresponding 2017 baseline amount by no less than $200 billion. 

在第六章，中国承诺“从2020年1月1日到2021年12月31日两年内，在2017年基数之上，扩大自美采购和进口制成品、农产品、能源产品和服务不少于2000亿美元。”

Specifically, no less than $77.7 billion of manufactured goods, $52.4 billion of energy products and $37.9 billion of services would be purchased and imported into China from the US. Such huge increases are astounding.

其中，制成品777亿、能源产品524亿、农产品320亿、服务379亿美元，这是一个巨大的、令全球都惊叹的增量。

According to Chinese media reports, the outcome of the China-US trade talks is in line with the direction of Beijing to comprehensively deepen reform and also conforms to China's goal to boost consumption demand. At present, more than 65 percent of China's petroleum depends on imports, and the country is also the world's largest importer of silicon chips, integrated circuits and semiconductors. From this perspective, there is nothing wrong with buying more US goods.

根据中国官方媒体报道，这场谈判的最终结果符合中国全面深化改革的方向，也符合提升中国民众消费需求的目标。当前，中国石油65%以上靠进口，中国也是芯片、集成电路、半导体等产品的全球第一进口大国。从这个角度看，多进口美国的商品并没有错。

刘鹤与特朗普展示协议文本。 新华社记者 李木子 摄

However, looking further into various voices both at home and abroad, one will find that the China-US trade deal is not only a result of tough negotiations, but will also lead to new cruel competition in the market.

然而，细究来自国内与国际上的各种声音，中美协议的背后不只是一场艰难的谈判，更会产生残酷的市场新竞争。

According to my colleague, professor He Weiwen who worked for the Ministry of Commerce for over 30 years, goods worth $153.9 billion were imported from the US into China in 2017 and the figure declined to $122.7 billion in 2019. Based on the trade agreement, China will have to increase its imports from the US to at least $232.2 billion in the next two years, an average annual growth of about 70 percent. It's a rather difficult target. China's imports from countries other than the US have increased only by $152.9 billion over the past five years. 

我的同事、在商务部工作30多年的何伟文教授算了一笔账，2017年中国从美进口1539亿美元，2019年下降至1227亿美元。按协议，意味着中国未来两年需要再从美国进口至少2322亿美元，年均增长约70%。这是相当难的目标。要知道，过去五年，中国从美国之外的其他国家进口仅增加了1529亿美元。

China's major trading partners such as the European Union, Southeast Asian countries and Japan are worried about whether the country will reduce imports from them. Some even doubt if the China-US trade deal is in compliance with WTO rules. There are chambers of commerce in Europe suggesting that the continent should pressure China into a trade negotiation so that it will import more European products.

从这个角度看，欧盟、东南亚、日本这些中国主要贸易伙伴一定担心，中国会不会减少对他们的进口？更有人怀疑，中美这个贸易协议是否符合WTO规则？欧洲相关商会则建议，应该对中国施压，进行一场中欧贸易谈判，以便让中国更多地进口欧洲商品。

Chinese patriots who support domestic products worry that too many imports of American goods would hit the Chinese domestic players. Some Chinese are also concerned about the entry of US financial institutions such as securities and insurance companies as well as banks, even though they know that China came up with the goal of fully opening up the financial sector and balancing trade structure as early as in 2013.

中国的爱国主义者可能也会有看法，他们支持国货，担心过多进口美国商品会冲击中国市场。一些中国人也担心美国证券、银行、保险等金融机构的进入。尽管他们知道，早在2013年，中国就提出要全面实现金融开放、平衡贸易结构等发展目标。

Can China digest such a huge increase in imports from the US? I think the country has the potential, but it might be stuffed in the short term. It's like people who have a good appetite, but one might choke up if eating too fast.

在我看来，目前的难点在于，中国是否能够消化那么巨大的对美进口增量？我的答案是，有潜力，但短期内会撑。打个比喻，中国的饭量很大，但是，如果吃得太快，容易噎着。

In 2019, China's population exceeded 1.4 billion for the first time. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 41,164.9 billion yuan ($5.9 trillion) in 2019, went up by 8 percent year-on-year. Barring unforeseen circumstances, China will overtake the US to become the world's largest consumer of goods in the coming two years. In that case, it will be fully capable of digesting the increased imports.

2019年中国人口首次超过14亿。中国社会消费品零售总额约6万亿美元，增长8%，增量约5000亿美元。不出意外的话，未来两年，中国将产生1万亿美元的社会消费增量，将全面超过美国成为世界第一大消费市场。消化2322亿美元从美国来的进口增量，中国完全是有可能的。

The key issue is, when such a situation occurs, it might impact the original process of structural adjustment in China's growth in social consumption. There will be fierce competition in Chinese markets among US products, other foreign merchandise and Chinese goods.

问题的关键在于，这可能会冲击中国社会消费增长原有的结构调整进程。美国商品、美国之外的其他国家商品与中国商品会产生一轮抢夺中国市场的激烈竞争。

The rational choice of the Chinese market will be the key to determining the results of the competition. According to the phase one deal, "The United States shall ensure to take appropriate steps to facilitate the availability of US goods and services to be purchased and imported into China… purchases will be made at market prices based on commercial considerations and that market conditions." If the US goods are too expensive or if their quality is too poor, China has the right not to increase the amount of purchase from the US. By then, the agreement will not be fulfilled and both parties will be responsible.

中国市场的理性选择，是决定这场抢夺市场战的关键。中美协议中明确写道，“美国应确保采取适当举措，以便有足够的美国商品和服务供中国采购和进口”，“采购活动是基于市场价格和商业考虑”如果美国商品太贵、太差，中国有不增加采购美国商品的权利。到时候，协议完不成，双方都有责任。

Therefore, I would like to suggest that the US lift restrictions on the exports of high-tech products to China as soon as possible, loosen the policies which limit Chinese companies' investment in the US and welcome Chinese enterprises to be listed in the US. Only in that way can China reach the goal of increasing imports from the US to $232.2 billion.

所以，我想对美国建议，尽快取消对中国的高科技产品出品限制，尽快松绑限制中国公司对美国投资的政策，大量欢迎中国公司赴美上市。只有这样，两年2322亿美元的进口目标才有可能完成。

I would also like to urge other countries to explore the market in China. China's GDP per capita passed $10,000 in 2019, which is far below the level in developed countries. In the next 15 years, China's GDP per capita is expected to reach $20,000, with the country's urban population increasing by 300 to 500 million, which signals a broad market. Developing the Chinese market will bring more dividends for the world.

我也想对其他国家建议，欢迎来中国开发市场。中国人均GDP刚刚过1万美元，还远远没达到发达国家的水平。未来15年，中国人均GDP将达到2万美元，还会有3－5亿人城镇化，相当于欧盟人口，市场仍非常广阔。开发中国市场，才能为世界创造更多红利。

I want to tell Chinese people to have confidence in the country's opening-up. The more open our market, the more China will develop and the stronger Chinese companies will become. When China embraces opening-up in an all-round way, both the country and the world will prosper.

我更想对所有中国人说，要对开放有信心。越开放，中国会越发展，中国企业才会越壮大。中国拥抱全方位开放，中国会更好，世界也会更好。

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。